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Super Bowl 50

Broncos (+5) over Panthers
6:30 PM (EST) -- Levi's Stadium

Denver Broncos
1) MRPICKEM LIFETIME RECORD (as a professional sports handicapper): 21 of 30 Super Bowls, 70% WINNERS!
2) Classic "Sharps vs Squares" matchup- every smart professional will be on Denver, every amateur on Carolina- because of hype about Cam. Edge: Denver and sharps.
3) This is an EXTREME version- as of today it''s the most lopsided Super Bowl betting in history...and one of the top 5 most lopsided of any NFL Postseason game EVER. *Classic exciting, sexy offense vs great D- masses of public always bet Offense (they can''t resist)...D almost always wins. I''ve bet games like this for 31 years. Edge: Denver.
4) The team with chip on shoulder almost always wins- that team is Denver. Disrespected, almost considered a chump in media. 2 years ago that team was Seattle versus Denver and Peyton! Now it''s Peyton. Edge: Denver.
5) Weather- Peyton is terrible in weather below 40 degrees. Has been his whole career. 2 years ago...he played in New York for Super Bowl. While balmy by NY in February standards, it was below 40 degrees. That hurt his effectiveness (and psychology). This Super Bowl will be in beautiful weather around 70 degrees and sunny. Edge: Denver.
6) I always play the better D if they are getting points- statistically Denver is better D. Edge: Denver.
7) The team with better D and better Special Teams stats too, getting points, is almost unbeatable in postseason games. Denver has statistically better in BOTH. Edge: Denver.
8) Line moves- line opened +3½. Went to 6 and now back to 5. That is very significant. Those 1½ points could determine the game. Denver now covers the two most statistically important NFL numbers- 3 and 4. Edge: Denver.
9) The team with the worst record has won almost every recent Super Bowl. Again that plays into "chip on shoulder" psychology. Carolina is 17-1. Edge: Denver.
10) The most important trend of all- the team that comes from behind in the most games during season has won almost every Super Bowl in modern history- it proves they deal well with adversity and play well under stress in a "big game." I define "come from behind" as behind 7 or more at any time in any game...and behind at any time in 2nd half. Carolina came from behind 6 times Denver 9 times Edge: Denver

67% of the play so far are on the Panthers. Denver was a dark horse candidate to even make it to this point. No one should write the Broncos off quite yet, especially on the biggest stage of them all. And with the smartest QB to ever hit the field and with the best defense in the NFL backing him up. The key for Denver winning the Super Bowl is their number one ranked defense. They took apart the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware will need to get after Cam Newton and put him under the same pressure Tom Brady felt. The Broncos defense led the NFL in average yards allowed (283.2), sacks (52), has yielded 34 points and 568 total yards in two playoff games, and hit Tom Brady 23 times in the conference title game. The magic continues as defense wins Championships. Manning wins and then retires. (the money line is currently at +187). Also with 2 of the better defenses around this should be a low scoring game...easily under the currend 44½

My plays:
Denver +5 -105
Under 44½ -109

12 Super Bowl Props with good chances


Game of the Day: Broncos at Patriots

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 50)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will inevitably end up in the NFL Hall of Fame together and have been compared to each other since the former burst onto the scene in 2001. The two star quarterbacks continue their rivalry when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. As usual, Brady and Manning have their respective teams near the top of the AFC and Sunday’s meeting could have implications on postseason seeding down the line.

Brady’s teams have defeated Manning’s 10 out of the 15 meetings, but the Broncos got the big win when it counted in the AFC Championship game last season. “Peyton has been a phenomenal player – so consistent and durable for a long period,” Brady told reporters. “We've had a great rivalry. ... He’s always been someone I've really looked up to and admired.” Denver owns the best record in the AFC and joins New England in entering the weekend on a four-game winning streak.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Vegas books opened the Broncos as 3-point road faves and that hasn't moved. The total opened 55 and is down to 50 mostly due to in-climate weather.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - RB Montee Ball (Questionable, groin), CB Omar Bolden (Questionable, concussion), LB Steven Johnson (Questionable, ankle). Patiots - DB Nate Ebner (Questionable, finger), OL Cameron Fleming (Questionble finger).


POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.75) + Patriots (-3.75) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -2.0

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver has won and covered four straight and heads to New England for just its third road game. 9-20 ATS in the last 29 road games versus a team with a winning home record. New England on a four-game winning streak after 2-2 start and plays Denver in its third-straight home game. 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points." Matt Fargo.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Broncos -3.5 (+100) / Pats +3.5 (-120) and we saw mostly Broncos money at that price. We went to -3.5 -105 and eventually -3.5 flat on the game and that’s when we took a decent size bet from one of sharper players. We went back to Broncos -3.5 and that same sharp bettor took the Pat’s again at that new price, that forced us to get down to 3-flat on this game, which is our current number. Since going to 3-flat though we’ve seen a huge rise in Broncos support and I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually get back to 3.5 on this game. Obviously we hate moving off and on this very key number of 3, so we’ll get to -3 (-120) before going back to 3, but currently we’ve moved it from 3 flat to Broncos -3 (-115) for now." Michael Stewart.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Denver received a few extra days to prepare after playing the Thursday night game on Oct. 23 and has looked even better than the team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Defensive end Von Miller, who sat out the win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Month for October with seven sacks and cornerback Aqib Talib, who made the Pro Bowl as a member of New England in 2013, is now on the Broncos’ side. “I think they’re forming their identity,” Manning told reporters of the defense. “There is no question they’re playing with confidence, and that’s what you want.”

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): New England’s rise over the last few weeks can be directly linked to the return to health of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was limited the first month while recovering from a knee injury that knocked him out of the 2013 campaign. The player that delivered the hit that tore up Gronkowski’s knee, safety T.J. Ward, is now with the Broncos, and the Patriots’ star has been avoiding making any statements directly about Ward. Gronkowski’s statements on the field have been loud, and he is coming off a three-TD performance in last week's 51-23 victory over the Chicago Bears.


* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in New England.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: 53 percent of wagers are backing the visiting Broncos.

The play: Denver -3

Jags +11
NYJ +9


Game of the Day: Auburn at Ole Miss

Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (-1.5, 51)

Coming off its third 40-point effort in the last four games, No. 4 Auburn will face a stiff challenge Saturday when it visits ninth-ranked Mississippi in an SEC West showdown. The SEC is loaded with intriguing matchups on a weekly basis, but this contest is particularly attractive since Ole Miss is trying to bounce back from its first loss while Auburn is hoping to avoid losing at both Mississippi schools. The Tigers were defeated at current No. 1 Mississippi State 38-23 two games ago before bouncing back with a 42-35 triumph against South Carolina.

"(Improving on a weekly basis) has been the plan all year from day one," said Auburn coach Gus Malzahn. "We are going to need to have that happen because we are playing the meat of our schedule with three top-10 teams on the road. I don't know another team in the country that is doing that." The other game that Malzahn is referring to is next month's contest at No. 8 Georgia, but first the Tigers must find a way to score against the nation's top defense. The Rebels are giving up just 10.5 points per game and basically fell right on that number in last week's 10-7 defeat at 17th-ranked LSU.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Mississippi -2

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Ole Miss -3, the line has dropped to -1.5. The total has jumped from an opening line of 50 to 51.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn - DE Carl Lawson (Ques-Knee), OL Patrick Miller (Ques-Undisclosed) Ole Miss - DT Robert Nkemdiche (Prob-Undisclosed), CB Cody Prewitt (Prob-Shoulder), OL Ben Still (Prob-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Clear skies are expected for the game with the temperature near 52°F. Winds will be gusting upwards of six mph.

ABOUT AUBURN (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The Tigers landed at No. 3 in the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings - one spot ahead of the Rebels - but whichever team loses Saturday almost certainly will fall out of the playoff picture. Auburn ran for a season-high 395 yards last week against South Carolina with Cameron Artis-Payne totaling 167 yards and a touchdown and quarterback Nick Marshall adding 89 and three scores. Another key weapon for Auburn is Quan Bray, who leads the nation in punt return average (25.2) and has a pair of punt return TDs in 2014.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (7-1, 4-1): Ole Miss has outscored opponents 62-3 in the first quarter this season, including 7-0 against LSU last weekend, but the Rebels could not dent the scoreboard over the final three quarters, losing on an interception by Bo Wallace near the goal line with two seconds left. "This league is brutal," said Rebels coach Hugh Freeze, whose team has thrived off turnovers this season, leading the nation with 90 points off miscues. Wallace, who had thrown 126 consecutive passes without a pick before the final play against LSU, is the SEC's active career leader in passing touchdowns (58), total touchdowns (74), passing yards (8,415) and total yards (9,322).


*Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
*Under is 10-1 in Rebels last 11 games overall.
*Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
*Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Mississippi.
The play: Ole Miss -1'

Kansas St -12'
Gators +11

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