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Super Bowl 50

Broncos (+5) over Panthers
6:30 PM (EST) -- Levi's Stadium

Denver Broncos
1) MRPICKEM LIFETIME RECORD (as a professional sports handicapper): 21 of 30 Super Bowls, 70% WINNERS!
2) Classic "Sharps vs Squares" matchup- every smart professional will be on Denver, every amateur on Carolina- because of hype about Cam. Edge: Denver and sharps.
3) This is an EXTREME version- as of today it''s the most lopsided Super Bowl betting in history...and one of the top 5 most lopsided of any NFL Postseason game EVER. *Classic exciting, sexy offense vs great D- masses of public always bet Offense (they can''t resist)...D almost always wins. I''ve bet games like this for 31 years. Edge: Denver.
4) The team with chip on shoulder almost always wins- that team is Denver. Disrespected, almost considered a chump in media. 2 years ago that team was Seattle versus Denver and Peyton! Now it''s Peyton. Edge: Denver.
5) Weather- Peyton is terrible in weather below 40 degrees. Has been his whole career. 2 years ago...he played in New York for Super Bowl. While balmy by NY in February standards, it was below 40 degrees. That hurt his effectiveness (and psychology). This Super Bowl will be in beautiful weather around 70 degrees and sunny. Edge: Denver.
6) I always play the better D if they are getting points- statistically Denver is better D. Edge: Denver.
7) The team with better D and better Special Teams stats too, getting points, is almost unbeatable in postseason games. Denver has statistically better in BOTH. Edge: Denver.
8) Line moves- line opened +3½. Went to 6 and now back to 5. That is very significant. Those 1½ points could determine the game. Denver now covers the two most statistically important NFL numbers- 3 and 4. Edge: Denver.
9) The team with the worst record has won almost every recent Super Bowl. Again that plays into "chip on shoulder" psychology. Carolina is 17-1. Edge: Denver.
10) The most important trend of all- the team that comes from behind in the most games during season has won almost every Super Bowl in modern history- it proves they deal well with adversity and play well under stress in a "big game." I define "come from behind" as behind 7 or more at any time in any game...and behind at any time in 2nd half. Carolina came from behind 6 times Denver 9 times Edge: Denver

67% of the play so far are on the Panthers. Denver was a dark horse candidate to even make it to this point. No one should write the Broncos off quite yet, especially on the biggest stage of them all. And with the smartest QB to ever hit the field and with the best defense in the NFL backing him up. The key for Denver winning the Super Bowl is their number one ranked defense. They took apart the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware will need to get after Cam Newton and put him under the same pressure Tom Brady felt. The Broncos defense led the NFL in average yards allowed (283.2), sacks (52), has yielded 34 points and 568 total yards in two playoff games, and hit Tom Brady 23 times in the conference title game. The magic continues as defense wins Championships. Manning wins and then retires. (the money line is currently at +187). Also with 2 of the better defenses around this should be a low scoring game...easily under the currend 44½

My plays:
Denver +5 -105
Under 44½ -109

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