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Super Bowl XLIX

New England Patriots (14-4)) vs Seattle Seahawks (Line varies +1 to -1 and total locked at 48)

Certain games throughout the year I simply go with the team that I want to win, or a gut feeling, things that most people would consider ridiculous reasons for picking one team over another. The Super Bowl is the one game each year where I just go with the team that I want to win, then I rate the game accordingly depending on how confident I am in "my" team. It just so happens that in this year's game, the team that I want to win is the same team that I honestly believe will win this game, that team being the Patriots. This will be my largest wager of the year because 1) I only wager on football, this is it for me until next season. 2) It's the Super Bowl. 3) I'm playing with profits. 4) I feel that strongly about New England winning this game. This is also a game that I want the Patriots to win. If I had no money on this game I would be rooting for the Patriots. I'm from Redwood City CA. Brady grew up about five miles from me in San Mateo. Edelman went to the same high school as my kids. I've always liked Belichick. Have never been a big fan of Pete Carroll, just don't like the way he celebrates alone on the sidelines when winning, then surrounds himself with his assistants when losing. I think the Seahawks have the worst uniforms this side of Maryland. And I just like the way the Patriots go about their business.

Now for my "in-depth" analysis: Yes, I truly believe that New England will win this game, hence the 5* rating. I think it will be a great game, and probably a close game, but I just see Belichick and Brady holding that trophy after the game. I know that Seattle has a good defense (And stop it! No more comparing this unit to the '85 Bears) But they're good. But are they good enough to shut down Brady, Gronk, and Edelman with Belichick having two weeks to prepare? I don't think so. I can easily see the Pats scoring over 30 points. I don't see the Seahawks doing that. Lynch is going to get his yards, might even break a couple long ones. But I just see the Patriots' offense being able to move the ball, both running and passing, and the Patriots' defense disrupting Wilson into a couple mistakes and winning this game. That's it. No systems or angles, no "inside information" (whatever that is). Just a hunch, but my hunches recently won 16 straight 5* plays over three months.

Still not sure which way to go on this game? (oh c'mon you can do it!) Allow me to make a suggestion. Odds are that you are a big football fan. And there's a good chance that you like one of these teams more than the other. Why not just bet on the team that you want to win. This is the Super Bowl, for a football fan the biggest day of the year, a fun day. Keep it fun, root for your team, bet on your team, and don't overdo things. And whatever you do, do not! I repeat, do not! pay some phony-baloney your hard-earned money to make this pick for you.

If you're simply going back and forth on this, remember, we've all been there. When you're on a "hot" streak, picks just seem to come a little easier, at least for me. But when you're on a "cold" streak, oh baby, we all know how that feels, everybody on the edge of their seats waiting for you to make your call so they can "fade" your sorry ass. Yeah, cold streaks are no fun. Knowing (for a fact!) that whichever team you pick is going to get it's butt kicked and doesn't stand a chance in hell of covering and if you try going "the other way" it only guarantees that your new team will lose on the last play of the game with the announcer screaming "Wow, I've never seen that happen before!" Yep, it happens to us all. Luckily I've been on a nice little hot streak lately and I don't see too many cold streaks anymore. That, however, means nothing. This is one game, the game, and nobody knows what's going to happen. You have my opinion, I think the Patriots win. And there are millions of other opinions out there, about half for each team. But all that matters is what you think.

In the past I've cashed lots of bets on defense, including last years Super Bowl. I just believe the versatility on the Pats offense will definitely cause problem for Seahawks and the subpar Hawks offense will struggle versus much improved NE defense.

The play: Patriots ML & smaller play on under 48