You are here

SUPER BOWL / SUPER PICK!

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos - 6:30 PM EST

For only the 2nd time in the last 20 years has the top 2 seeds made it all the way to the Super Bowl. John Q. Public really wants the scenario of Peyton Manning winning it all and riding off in the sunset of retirement. I'm extra psyched up about this year more than usual because I feel there are some unique findings all pointing to the same side in this one. In 47 tries, no quarterback has EVER won a Super Bowl with 2 different teams. Denver set an NFL record scoring 606 points in the regular season, averaging 37.9 PPG & 457 YPG.

Those who cared to dive into the record books would have found that the last 5 teams that broke single-season scoring records went a perfect 0-5 SU in the grand finale. After further sports database crunchings, the past 7 times a team played 2 games in a row at home and then was installed as Super bowl favorites, that team has gone a perfect 0-7 ATS.

For my pick here, people ask why the ML? The answer is plainly because the pointspread has only come into play 13% of the time with just 6 times in 47 chances. let's get down in the trenches now. Denver is a great offense but has not ran into this type of physicality this season since the Broncos faced NOBODY in the top 6 in total defense all year.

In contrast, Seattle faced EIGHT teams in the top 6 in total defense & 7 teams that won at least 10 games! On the flip side, the Orange & Blue have really inflated passing statistics since they've faced 9 teams who ranked in the bottom 8 in yards per play defense. Denver receivers Demariyus Thomas, Julius Thomas, Eric Decker & Wes Welker must now face a Seattle defense that is both the NFL's best scoring defense & yards per play defense. This unit makes things happen. They are forcing a league-best 2.4 turnovers per game with a very strong TO ratio of +20! Seattle has allowed just 14.4 PPG this season. They have 8 of out of 10 best skill position players in this matchup.

LCB Richard Sherman is stellar along with 2 speedsters at safety with Earl Thomas & Kam Chancellor. Having LB K.J. Wright only solidifies their physicality . DC Dan Quinn has some pretty strong blueprints laid by mediocre San Diego (held Denver to 22 PPG) who had a fierce pass rush. Add to that an effective ground game by Seattle led by RB Marshawn Lynch to keep Manning on the sidelines and that is just how the Chargers got their "W" over Denver earlier.

Taking these teams to the road, we find the Broncos were 5-3 ATS while Seattle going a solid 6-2 SU & ATS this season. Yes, Seattle can play well away from CenturyLink Field. One other big stat you can't overlook is Seattle's BIG GAME success. The Hawks' have gone an amazing 16-3-1 ATS their last 20 versus winning teams - good to the tune of 84%! To boot, Seattle has also covered an unheard of 74% of their last 32 games.

My bottom line says the weather (which could be windy and/or snowy) favors Seattle for both scenarios. I feel Seattle QB Russell Wilson is poised and mature for his 2nd season. He's compiled an amazing 24-8 regular season record since graduating from Wisconsin. I like his chances here since Denver is missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller & their best DB in Chris Harris. having WR Percy Harvin back only enhances Wilson's effectiveness in hitting other wideouts.

The underdog trend in the Super Bowl has seen the pups cash 5 out of the last 6. I'm ready to cash fellas! Let's go to the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ for the first cold-weather Super Bowl to throw all the pasta on the Seattle Seahawks on the ML as my Rare Super Bowl LOCK! Seahawks will win by 3-7 points.

•PREGAME NOTES: With a Super Bowl victory, Pete Carroll can join Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer as the only coaches to win a college football national championship and a Super Bowl in their careers.... Each player on the winning team in Super Bowl XLVIII will receive $92,000. Each losing player gets $46,000.... A 30-second commercial for Super Bowl XLVIII will cost $4 million. In the first Super Bowl, it was $42k.... The face value ticket prices for Super Bowl XLVIII range from $500 to $2,600. Super Bowl I prices were tiered at $6, $8 and $12.

The coldest outdoor Super Bowl on record was Super Bowl VI in New Orleans before the Superdome opened. It was 39 degrees at kickoff.... Super Bowl XLVIII will be distributed to more than 185 countries and broadcast in 30 different languages.... The 2014 Pro Football Hall of Fame class will be announced the day before the Super Bowl with former Seattle Seahawks left tackle Walter Jones, ex-Tampa Bay linebacker Derrick Brooks, former Giants star DE Michael Strahan and former Bucs and Colts coach Tony Dungy as the most likely inductees.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Rush/Pass YPP, Time of Possession, along with Turnover Margin). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 23 times, while the favorite covered the spread 47 times. *EDGE against the spread =DENVER. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 46 times, while the underdog won straight up 24 times. 41 games went under the total, while 29 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 82 times, while the favorite covered first half line 58 times. *No EDGE. 56 games went under first half total, while 42 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•KEY STATS
-- SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 25.5, OPPONENT 16.8.

-- SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.7, OPPONENT 16.3.

-- SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.5, OPPONENT 19.3.

-- CARROLL is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.1, OPPONENT 14.6.

-- CARROLL is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 32.0, OPPONENT 12.0.

-- CARROLL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.1, OPPONENT 19.0.

-- SEATTLE is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 20.0, OPPONENT 11.2.

-- SEATTLE is 21-47 against the 1rst half line (-30.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 8.0, OPPONENT 15.6.

-- SEATTLE is 10-28 against the 1rst half line (-20.8 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.3, OPPONENT 16.2.

-- SEATTLE is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in road games in playoff games since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.6, OPPONENT 17.7.

-- SEATTLE is 18-41 against the 1rst half line (-27.1 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 8.2, OPPONENT 14.4.

-- SEATTLE is 9-26 against the 1rst half line (-19.6 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 9.0, OPPONENT 12.3.

-- CARROLL is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) off 2 consecutive home wins as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 6.8, OPPONENT 14.4.

-- SEATTLE is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 17.2, OPPONENT 13.5.

-- SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 16.7, OPPONENT 13.9.

-- CARROLL is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 19.1, OPPONENT 9.6.

-- DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 29.4, OPPONENT 19.6.

-- DENVER is 40-18 OVER (+20.2 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 22.8, OPPONENT 24.6.

-- DENVER is 46-20 OVER (+24.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 24.5, OPPONENT 23.1.

-- DENVER is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 28.8, OPPONENT 34.2.

-- DENVER is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 35.6, OPPONENT 24.8.

-- DENVER is 27-10 OVER (+16.0 Units) after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 27.0, OPPONENT 24.5.

-- FOX is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 28.4, OPPONENT 25.0.

-- DENVER is 15-3 against the 1rst half line (+11.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 17.4, OPPONENT 8.0.

-- DENVER is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was DENVER 19.2, OPPONENT 3.2.

-- FOX is 16-4 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing The average score was FOX 10.6, OPPONENT 8.3.

-- FOX is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing The average score was FOX 11.8, OPPONENT 8.4.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Denver is 34-19 against Seattle and won 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010. That includes the Seahawks' 31-7 home victory in the only postseason matchup between the former AFC West rivals in 1983.

--DENVER is 12-10 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--DENVER is 17-6 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--DENVER is 14-7 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--15 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a S.U. win.

--Over is 13-2-1 in Broncos last 16 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 24-7 in Broncos last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.

All that being said, the major play is:

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +120

and a smaller play on UNDER 47½