2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = CHARGERS +7.5 and REDSKINS +8.5
This teaser covers the basic teaser strategy of crossing over key numbers of 3 and 7, and in this teaser we have two home teams now getting over 7 points as they are both small underdogs. The Chargers play host to the Cincinnati Bengals who are 6-5 on the season and 3-2 on the road. San Diego is coming off a rough overtime loss to the Ravens and have dropped to 4-7 and 2-3 at home. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games, while the Bengals have won three straight. Although that doesn't look too good, you have to realize that 2 of the Bengals 3 wins have come against Oakland and Kansas City (two of the worst AFC teams) and that they had lost 4 straight games before that. Also note that the Bengals three road wins have come against KC, Jacksonville, and Washington (with losses to Cleveland and Baltimore). The Chargers have lost some close games to good teams, including losing to Baltimore by 3, @Denver by 7, @Tampa Bay by 10, and @New Orleans by 7. The Bengals have the edge on offense scoring just over 3 more ppg than the Chargers, while San Diego has a slight edge allowing 1 less papg. The Bengals are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs AFC opponents, while the Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents and 6-2 ATS following an ATS loss. If the Bengals can pull off a big road win I can't see it being by more than a touchdown, and I think Chargers +7.5 is a safe play for the first leg of the teaser. In the second leg of the teaser we back the Redskins who host the Giants in an NFC East battle. The Giants are 7-4 on the year after a big win vs the Packers last week, while the Redskins are 5-6 after a big win themselves on Thanksgiving Day vs the Cowboys. These two teams have already met this season in New York, with the Giants escaping with a 27-23 victory in a game that Washington could have won. Although Washington has 6 losses only one has been by more than 8 points. Rookie QB RG3 has turned this team's offense into one of the best in the league ranked 7th and averaging 26.8 ppg. Note that the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. The Redskins are also 4-0 ATS in these two teams last 4 meetings. With the Giants coming off a huge emotional victory at home I look for the Redskins to take advantage and possibly upset the Giants at home. I like Washington +8.5 on the second end to complete this teaser.
2 UNIT = Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears - OVER 37.5
We will see a good NFC game in Chicago this week as the 6-5 Seahawks head to take on the 8-3 Bears. Seattle is 6-5 overall but just 1-5 on the road, while the Bears are 5-1 at home. Rookie QB Russsell Wilson has shown improvements as the season has gone on, and the Seahawks have scored 21+ points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. The Bears offense has been held in check at times, but they've scored 21+ points 7 times this season, including 28 points at home last week vs the Vikings. The Seahawks defense was once ranked 1st in the league, but they've allowed 21+ points against in 4 of their last 6 games. Note that the Bears are averaging 25.2 points per game and the Seahawks are averaging 19.9 ppg. The OVER is 20-7 in the Seahawks last 27 v a team with a winning record, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games following a loss, and 39-19 in their last 58 games on grass. The OVER is 5-1 in the Bears last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and 9- 3 in their last 12 games following a victory. These two teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 38-14 in Chicago, easily going OVER the 34.5 total. They also met in the playoffs in the previous year with Chicago winning 35-24 also going way OVER the total. In fact you'd have to go back 8 games to 2003 to find the last "under" between these two teams, which was actually a 41 point game. The OVER is 7-0 in their last 7 meetings and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Although we do have two good defenses in this game both teams have shown they can put up points and they play each other to the OVER.
2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions - COLTS +4.5
The Colts enter this week's game vs the Lions with a solid 7-4 record, although they are just 2-3 on the road. Two of their three road losses have come against good teams in New England and Chicago, while the other was against the Jets (wins vs Jacksonville and Tennessee on the road). The Lions are just 4-7 entering Sunday's game after making the playoffs last year. They are just 2-3 at home with wins against St Louis and Seattle and losses vs Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston. Note both wins at home came down to the wire and they could easily be 1-4 or even 0-5 at home this year. The Lions road wins have come against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, which makes their resume even less impressive this year. With that said Detroit still has a solid offense ranking 2nd in the league in yards per game, and scoring 24.3 ppg. The Colts surprisingly aren't far behind ranked 6th in the league and scoring 20.9 ppg. Defensively these two teams match up closely with the Lions ranked hi gher overall, but the Colts allowing just under one point against less per game. With the Colts being led by Rookie QB Andrew Luck, who hasn't proved himself on the road I expected Detroit to be small favorites at home, but I think we have good value taking the Colts +4.5 on Sunday. Indianapolis is playing good football right now scoring 20+ points in 4 straight games, while giving up 13 points or less in 4 of their last 6. They've won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Detroit has put up good numbers on offense lately, but they've given up 24+ points in 4 of their last 5 games and have lost 3 straight and 4 of 6. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record. The Lions are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. Take Indy plus the points.
2 UNIT = Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans - TEXANS -6
The Houston Texans enter this one 10-1 and leading the AFC. They are a perfect 5-0 on the road, and they've won 5 straight games. Their only loss of the season came at home vs Green Bay where they were beat 42-24, but other than that they've been great covering the spread in 7 of their 11 games this season. The Tennessee Titans are 4-7 on the year, and 2-3 at home. They've lost 3 of their last 4 games and most recently a 24-19 loss against the then one win Jaguars last weekend in Jacksonville. On paper this game is a huge mismatch with the Texans ranked 3rd in offense and scoring 29.7 ppg, while the Titnas are 24th ranked on offense and scoring 21.6 ppg. Defensively the Texans are ranked 6th and are allowing jsut 19.2 papg, while the Titans are ranked 29th and allowing 30.5 papg. These two teams met in Houston on September 30th, with the Texans winning 38-14 easily covering the 13 point spread. So why are the Texans favored by less than a touchdown? Some may consider this a let down spot for Houston who had a big win vs Detroit last week on Thanksgiving Day and are approaching a Monday Night match up with the Patriots. I don't think the Texans are over looking this one, as last season they lost three straight to finish the regular season and found themselves in an AFC Wildcard game. They know the importance of each game, and would love to head to New England next week 11-1. Note that the Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 vs divisional opponents, and 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games overall. The Titans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record, and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Houston is 3-1-1 ATS in these two teams last 5 meetings. I can't see the Texans playing soft this week, and if they should get by the Titans by at least a touchdown. Take Houston -6.