NFL - Week 15 ~ Monday Night

TENNESSEE 21 - NY Jets 16—Both teams hurting on offense—the Jets at the skill positions, and the Titans with injuries in their OL. And New York is managing to hang around in the AFC wildcard race...barely. But, with this game “meaningless” for Tennessee, the Titans can afford to play with abandon, and swift QB Jake Locker (22 of 36, 51 YR, but 2 ints. last week) might be just the perfect weapon vs. a Jets defense that has been slow on the pass rush this season. If Locker can get it going just a little bit, does he not have a better group of skill players to work with (RB Chas. Johnson, WR Kenny Britt, TE Jared Cook, etc.) than NYJ counterpart Mark Sanchez? Sometimes, so-called “mustwin” games are the hardest to win in the NFL.

Tale of the tape:

Offense

Mark Sanchez has continued to struggle despite less-than-stellar competition. The Jets' embattled quarterback is 22 of 40 for 208 yards with three interceptions and a fumble over the last two games. With Sanchez continuing to flounder, New York finally reverted to its preseason promise of a ground-and-pound attack in last week's 17-10 win at Jacksonville. Bilal Powell rushed for 78 yards and a TD on 19 carries and Shonn Greene had 77 yards and a score on 20 rushes. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading to the decision to bring back well-traveled veteran Braylon Edwards (hamstring) earlier this week. He is probable to suit up Monday night.

Titans QB Jake Locker missed five games earlier in the season due to injury and he has shown little progression since returning to the lineup. The second-year QB has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, including one from his own end zone that helped wipe out Tennessee's 13-point halftime lead against Indianapolis a week ago. Running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 1,000 yards for five straight seasons, but is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three games. Tight end Jared Cook, the team's second-leading receiver, is done for the season after suffering a torn rotator cuff in last week's game.

Edge: Titans

Defense

The Jets' defense has permitted a combined 16 points in the last two games after getting shredded for 49 by New England on Thanksgiving night. But keep in mind those dominant performances the past two weeks were against the NFL’s two worst offenses (Arizona, Jacksonville).

The Titans put together a dominant defensive first half — holding the Colts to 111 total yards, sacking Andrew Luck three times last week. The Tennessee stop unit limited the league’s third-best offense at the time to 269 yards and 4-of-12 third-down conversions. It also scored a touchdown. The Titans allow an average of 127 rushing yards, tied for 23rd in the league.

Edge: Jets

Special teams

The Jets rank eighth in opponents’ kickoff-return average and lead the league with 22 opponents’ drives starting inside their own 20. Kicker Nick Folk has made only 76 percent of his field goal attempts this season, ranking him 32nd in the league in that category.

Titans return specialist Darius Reynaud enjoyed success early in the season, but teams are now avoiding him. He returned just one punt for 14 yards in last week’s loss to the Colts and was ripped by the local media for his poor decision-making the week before against Houston. Rob Bironas and Brett Kern are one of the better kicking/punting duos in the league.

Edge: Titans

Word on the street

“Big, talented, physical guy (Locker). Almost has a mentality of a running back when he takes off with it. Obviously, he’s a great athlete, he has a big arm. He’s a guy, certainly, you have to worry about. Not only with his arm, but his scrambling ability as well.” – Jets head coach Rex Ryan on Jake Locker.

“We have a young quarterback and most teams have to decide, do we want to try to confuse him and go after him, or make him read coverage? I'm sure they'll do a little bit of both.” – Titans head coach Mike Munchak on what he expects from the Jets defense.

The play: Take the TITANS +1 or +110ML

NFL - Week 13

2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = CHARGERS +7.5 and REDSKINS +8.5

This teaser covers the basic teaser strategy of crossing over key numbers of 3 and 7, and in this teaser we have two home teams now getting over 7 points as they are both small underdogs. The Chargers play host to the Cincinnati Bengals who are 6-5 on the season and 3-2 on the road. San Diego is coming off a rough overtime loss to the Ravens and have dropped to 4-7 and 2-3 at home. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games, while the Bengals have won three straight. Although that doesn't look too good, you have to realize that 2 of the Bengals 3 wins have come against Oakland and Kansas City (two of the worst AFC teams) and that they had lost 4 straight games before that. Also note that the Bengals three road wins have come against KC, Jacksonville, and Washington (with losses to Cleveland and Baltimore). The Chargers have lost some close games to good teams, including losing to Baltimore by 3, @Denver by 7, @Tampa Bay by 10, and @New Orleans by 7. The Bengals have the edge on offense scoring just over 3 more ppg than the Chargers, while San Diego has a slight edge allowing 1 less papg. The Bengals are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs AFC opponents, while the Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents and 6-2 ATS following an ATS loss. If the Bengals can pull off a big road win I can't see it being by more than a touchdown, and I think Chargers +7.5 is a safe play for the first leg of the teaser. In the second leg of the teaser we back the Redskins who host the Giants in an NFC East battle. The Giants are 7-4 on the year after a big win vs the Packers last week, while the Redskins are 5-6 after a big win themselves on Thanksgiving Day vs the Cowboys. These two teams have already met this season in New York, with the Giants escaping with a 27-23 victory in a game that Washington could have won. Although Washington has 6 losses only one has been by more than 8 points. Rookie QB RG3 has turned this team's offense into one of the best in the league ranked 7th and averaging 26.8 ppg. Note that the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. The Redskins are also 4-0 ATS in these two teams last 4 meetings. With the Giants coming off a huge emotional victory at home I look for the Redskins to take advantage and possibly upset the Giants at home. I like Washington +8.5 on the second end to complete this teaser.

2 UNIT = Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears - OVER 37.5

We will see a good NFC game in Chicago this week as the 6-5 Seahawks head to take on the 8-3 Bears. Seattle is 6-5 overall but just 1-5 on the road, while the Bears are 5-1 at home. Rookie QB Russsell Wilson has shown improvements as the season has gone on, and the Seahawks have scored 21+ points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. The Bears offense has been held in check at times, but they've scored 21+ points 7 times this season, including 28 points at home last week vs the Vikings. The Seahawks defense was once ranked 1st in the league, but they've allowed 21+ points against in 4 of their last 6 games. Note that the Bears are averaging 25.2 points per game and the Seahawks are averaging 19.9 ppg. The OVER is 20-7 in the Seahawks last 27 v a team with a winning record, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games following a loss, and 39-19 in their last 58 games on grass. The OVER is 5-1 in the Bears last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and 9- 3 in their last 12 games following a victory. These two teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 38-14 in Chicago, easily going OVER the 34.5 total. They also met in the playoffs in the previous year with Chicago winning 35-24 also going way OVER the total. In fact you'd have to go back 8 games to 2003 to find the last "under" between these two teams, which was actually a 41 point game. The OVER is 7-0 in their last 7 meetings and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Although we do have two good defenses in this game both teams have shown they can put up points and they play each other to the OVER.

2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions - COLTS +4.5

The Colts enter this week's game vs the Lions with a solid 7-4 record, although they are just 2-3 on the road. Two of their three road losses have come against good teams in New England and Chicago, while the other was against the Jets (wins vs Jacksonville and Tennessee on the road). The Lions are just 4-7 entering Sunday's game after making the playoffs last year. They are just 2-3 at home with wins against St Louis and Seattle and losses vs Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston. Note both wins at home came down to the wire and they could easily be 1-4 or even 0-5 at home this year. The Lions road wins have come against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, which makes their resume even less impressive this year. With that said Detroit still has a solid offense ranking 2nd in the league in yards per game, and scoring 24.3 ppg. The Colts surprisingly aren't far behind ranked 6th in the league and scoring 20.9 ppg. Defensively these two teams match up closely with the Lions ranked hi gher overall, but the Colts allowing just under one point against less per game. With the Colts being led by Rookie QB Andrew Luck, who hasn't proved himself on the road I expected Detroit to be small favorites at home, but I think we have good value taking the Colts +4.5 on Sunday. Indianapolis is playing good football right now scoring 20+ points in 4 straight games, while giving up 13 points or less in 4 of their last 6. They've won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Detroit has put up good numbers on offense lately, but they've given up 24+ points in 4 of their last 5 games and have lost 3 straight and 4 of 6. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record. The Lions are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. Take Indy plus the points.

2 UNIT = Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans - TEXANS -6

The Houston Texans enter this one 10-1 and leading the AFC. They are a perfect 5-0 on the road, and they've won 5 straight games. Their only loss of the season came at home vs Green Bay where they were beat 42-24, but other than that they've been great covering the spread in 7 of their 11 games this season. The Tennessee Titans are 4-7 on the year, and 2-3 at home. They've lost 3 of their last 4 games and most recently a 24-19 loss against the then one win Jaguars last weekend in Jacksonville. On paper this game is a huge mismatch with the Texans ranked 3rd in offense and scoring 29.7 ppg, while the Titnas are 24th ranked on offense and scoring 21.6 ppg. Defensively the Texans are ranked 6th and are allowing jsut 19.2 papg, while the Titans are ranked 29th and allowing 30.5 papg. These two teams met in Houston on September 30th, with the Texans winning 38-14 easily covering the 13 point spread. So why are the Texans favored by less than a touchdown? Some may consider this a let down spot for Houston who had a big win vs Detroit last week on Thanksgiving Day and are approaching a Monday Night match up with the Patriots. I don't think the Texans are over looking this one, as last season they lost three straight to finish the regular season and found themselves in an AFC Wildcard game. They know the importance of each game, and would love to head to New England next week 11-1. Note that the Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 vs divisional opponents, and 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games overall. The Titans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record, and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Houston is 3-1-1 ATS in these two teams last 5 meetings. I can't see the Texans playing soft this week, and if they should get by the Titans by at least a touchdown. Take Houston -6.

NFL - Week 12

2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS +1

The San Francisco 49ers will head into New Orleans with a 7-2-1 record (3-1 on the road) and a new quarterback under center. With QB Alex Smith out the 49ers turned to young back up Colin Kaepernick who beat the Bears 32-7 on Monday night. Kaepernick is most likely to start on Sunday despite Smith being clearing to play after concussion testing. This will be the 49er's biggest test on the road since their Week 1 win in Green Bay. Other road wins came against the Jets and Cardinals, while they lost by 11 points to Minnesota as 6.5 point favorites. The New Orleans Saints are 5-5 on the year (3-2 at home) and are still looking to make the playoffs after winning 5 of their last 6 games and 3 straight. New Orleans has impressed me scoring 28+ points in their 5 wins, with their lone loss coming @Denver. New Orleans has one of the top rated offenses, while the 49ers have one of the leagues best defenses. I give the edge here to Drew Brees and the Saints offense in the Superdome. The Saints are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs a team with a winning record, and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. The 49ers beat New Orleans last year in the playoffs by 4 points, but Drew Brees is 5-0 lifetime in the regular season against the 49ers. With this meeting indoors in New Orleans I like the Saints to continue to roll with a big win over one of the NFC's best.

2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs - BRONCOS -9.5

The line is listed at -10 in most places, but I've bought it to -9.5 at a good price (-120).
This is going to be a big mismatch in Kansas City this week and I think the final score will show that. The Broncos are 7-3 on the year (3-2 on the road) and have won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Denver has scored 30+ points in each of their last 5 games and in all 7 games they've won this year. With the Chiefs giving up 28.4 papg I think it is very likely that this Peyton Manning led offense will put up at least 28 points. Kansas City is 1-9 on the year and 0-5 at home. They've lost 7 straight games and they've scored 16 or fewer points in 6 straight games. Denver's defense, led by Von Miller, is ranked 5th in the NFL and are allowing 21.2 papg. Given that KC has struggled to score points against some lower ranked defenses (Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati) I think they will have another unproductive afternoon. Note that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall, 5-2 in their last 7 divisional games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in KC. The Broncos lost to Kansas City last year, so I expect them not to take this game for granted. All signs point to a beat down in Kansas City and I really like Denver at with a single digit line at 9.5. If you can't get Denver -9.5 at -120 or better anymore take them -10.

2 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants - OVER 49.5

This may be the best game on the schedule as the 7-3 Green Bay Packers head into New York to take on the 6-4 defending Super Bowl Champions Giants. This will be a rematch of last year's playoff game where the Giants went into Green Bay as 8 point underdogs and beat Green Bay by 17 points. The final score of that one was 37-20.

NFL - Week 11

2 UNIT = Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons - FALCONS -9.5

The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a bye, but had lost 5 straight games heading into their bye week. They are 4-5 overall and just1-3 on the road. Over their last 5 games the Cardinals have scored just 53 points(10.6 points per game). The Falcons are 8-1 and coming off their first loss of the season, a 31-27 loss in New Orleans. Atlanta is perfect at home, with wins over Denver, Carolina, Oakland and Dallas. They are 6-3 ATS overall and 2-2 ATS at home. Although the Cardinals have a much higher ranked defensive in yards against, they are side by side allowing 19.2 and 19.3 points against per game. Their offenses are on different levels though, as the Falcons are ranked 6th overall and are scoring 27.4 points per game. The Cardinals are ranked 31st overall and are scoring just 16 points per game. QB John Skelton will get another start for the Cardinals and he is 33rd in the league with a 65.8 QB Rating, as he has thrown just 2 TDs and 5 INTs. Falcons QB Matt Ryan has been one of the most effective in the league completing 68.4% of his passes with 20 TDs , 7 INTs, and a 102.6 QB Rating. Note that the Cardinals are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Falcons rebound from a loss well going 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. They are also 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 vs a team with a losing record. Head to head the Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Arizona struggles on the road going 3-9 over the past two seasons away from home, and they have a very tough task this week. Given that they can't put together much offensively I don't see the Cardinals keeping this one close. The play is on Atlanta here.

2 UNIT = Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys - BROWNS +8

Cleveland goes into Dallas after a bye week looking to improve on their 2-7 record. Dallas is coming off a big win in Philadelphia and improved to 4-5 on the year. They are just 1-2 at home this season, while the Browns are winless on the road. All of a sudden it seems as if the Cowboys are getting a bunch of respect even though they were 1-4 over their last 5 games heading into Philadelphia, and knocked off a team that had won 3 games all season by a combined 4 points. The Cowboys rank much higher defensively than the Browns, but are giving up less than 1 point fewer per game. The Cowboys also rank a lot higher offensively but are averaging just 20.9 ppg compared to the Browns at 18.8 ppg. Advantage at the QB spot clearly goes to Tony Romo, although he has thrown just 12 TDs compared to 13 INTs this season. We are making this play because of the position the Cowboys are in. This is a good spot for a let down game after they went into Philadelphia and beat one of their division rvials, and now come home to host a 2-7 AFC team. Dallas also has a Thursday Thanksgiving home game just 4 days after this one against the Redskins that will be in the back of their minds. Cleveland also had an extra week of prep time with the bye week. Note that Dallas is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Browns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 8-2-1 ATS in their lat 11 games following a straight up loss. Yes the Cowboys are the better team and are at home, but they haven't had much of a home field advantage and this is a tough spot for them. I like the Browns to come into Dallas Sunday and keep it close.

2 UNIT = Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans - TEXANS -15

I will rarely play any spread over 2 touchdowns, but I think we have a good spot to take Houston this week. The Texans enter this game 8-1 (4-1 at home) while the Jaguars are 1-8 on the year (1-3 on the road). Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games in which they have scored more than 15 points just once. Included in those games was last week's Thursday Night'er where they lost 27-10 at home, and looked absolutely awful. The Houston Texans beat Chicago last Sunday night 13-6 as 1 point underdogs, and have now won three straight. Houston has the league's 2nd ranked defense, and they are avering jsut 15.9 points against per game. Jacksonville's D is ranked 27th and are allowing 27.3 points against per game. Houston is ranked 14th offensively, but they are near the top of the league scoring 27.8 ppg. The Jaguars are 32nd in the NFL offensively and are scoring a league worse 14.1 ppg. Their only hope on offense is Maurice Jones-Drew, but he will miss his 4th straight game on Sunday. Note that the Jags are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs a team with a winning record. The Texans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 19-7-2 in their last 29 games overall. Take note that 4 of Houston's 8 victories have come by at least 15 points, while 5 of Jacksonville's 8 losses have been by atleast 15 points. These two teams met in Jacksonville in Week 2 with the Texans winning by 20 points. I think Jacksonville will be lucky to score 10 points on Sunday, and the Texans will cover this big spread.

2 UNIT = New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders - SAINTS -4.5

I'm big on New Orleans right now and for good reasons. The Saints have won their last two games over Atlanta and Philadelphia, and have won 4 of 5 overall to improve to 4-5 on the season. The Raiders have dropped two straight, including last week's 55-20 loss in Baltimore. Oakland is just 3-6 this year and 2-2 at home, with two of their three victories coming against Kansas City and Jacksonville (both 1 win teams). This one looks to be a high scoring game, as New Orleans' defense is ranked 32nd while the Raiders are ranked 23rd defensively. The Saints are allowing less points against per game at 28.4 compared to the Raiders who are giving up a league worst 31.6 papg. New Orleans' offense is ranked 4th and are averaging 27.7 ppg, while the Raiders are 12th and averaging 21.2 ppg. QB Drew Brees has thrown 25 TDs and 9 INTs this season for a 97.3 QB Rating, while Carson Palmer has thrown 15 TDs, 9 INTs and has a 86.8 QB Rating. Although Drew Brees prefers playing in a dome, he should be fine in a warm weather outdoor stadium. The saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. The Raiders are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Saints have a ton of momentum heading into this one after knocking off the 8-0 Falcons last week, and they still have playoffs on their minds. The Raiders always play tough at home, but this team doesn't have enough to keep up with the Saints. I like New Orleans to win by a touchdown.

Hoops Betting 101

Thought I'd post a few thoughts that have helped me be a consistent winner over the last five years.
1. Have a Philosophy
Ask yourself a few questions: Am I betting cbb for fun or profit? Do I expect to lose my money or double it? Am I in this for the short-term (till I lose my money or win a certain amount) or long-term (going to be betting all season - this also speaks to the amount of units you should bet). *Special note: if you are in this for fun or the short-term (which is perfectly fine) this thread and all my threads won't be for you. My philosophies are for people who do this for profit and who are in for the long haul.

My personal philosophy (in cbb wagering and in life) is to see what "everyone" is doing and do the opposite. The truth is that 90-95% of the posters on this forum will lose their money very quickly and/or reload half a dozen or more times during the season. Success (and failures) leaves clues. The losing players do the following things:
a. they bet only on games they can watch and "sweat" through
b. they bet only televised and/or on ranked teams
c. they bet at the last second before tipoff usually getting the worst possible line
d. they focus on THE ENTIRE CARD by spending one to two minutes on fifty or more games
e. they MUST bet every single day and almost always bet "favorites" (or overs)
f. they are inconsistent with how much they bet each game
g. they bet less money (or less often) when they are winning and bet much more money (and more often) when they are losing
h. they easily go "on tilt" (because they always watch the games they bet on and feel like every loss is a bad beat)
i. they don't have the desire to research games/teams on their own so they search the forums for ANY opinion on ANY game and follow blindly
j. they stupidly evaluate the quality of a bet based solely on the final score of the game

My philosophy:
1. I never watch my bets: I watch tons of college basketball but always games that I have no money on so that I can objectively evaluate both teams and use that information later on in the season. Please understand that it is IMPOSSIBLE to objectively evaluate a wager (or team) when you have money on the game, you will always have bias towards your bet.
2. I rarely bet on ranked teams or games that are nationally televised. The main reason being is that those lines are SIGNIFICANTLY tighter and information about injuries, strategies, and other "angles" are much more readily available
3. I try to always bet as early as possible (sometimes the night before or other times the morning of) in an attempt to get the best line. If I am going to bet on a team that I think won't be "a public play"(aka an ugly underdog), I'll wait till the last second in a attempt to get the best line.
4. I focus my energy on one (or two at the most) conferences and only a handful of teams. I'd rather spend 30 minutes a piece studying 6 teams than spend 6 minutes a piece studying 30 teams.
5. I bet only when I see "value" so some days I won't bet, others I'll only have one play or others I'll have as many plays as I feel are worth it
6. I bet a higher percentage of my bankroll than most "quality winning players" on this site. As I've explained before, I do this so that I continue to narrow down my plays to one I really feel strongly about as even one loss "hurts" my bankroll. In terms of easy math, lets say that I start with a bankroll of 5000 dollars. I'll make each of my plays 5% of that bankroll (250 dollars) and while that doesn't sound like a lot by itself, a losing streak of four games already drops my bankroll 20%. Also realize that if I make a bet that is 2-units, 10% of my bankroll is on the line. It should also be noted that 1-unit is 5% of my CURRENT bankroll, meaning that if I win four straight bets, my bankroll in the above example would now be 6000 so my NEW unit is now 300. If I am enduring a losing streak, then my unit will be less. This makes sense that when you are on a roll and seeing things clearly, you bet slightly more and when you are in a funk, you bet less.
7. I research all my own games using

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